The Market Has Peaked

Some of my colleagues may not want to believe it, but we are now in a new market reality. The extremely bullish market we have been experiencing for the past 12 months, at times accelerating at a break neck pace, has ended. Top-10 anecdotal signs that the market has already peaked:

1. ‘Fake’ developer websites for new developments are at an all-time high. These are websites set up by Realtors looking to capture buyers when a new development launches. Many of these sites are designed to mimic the developer’s official websites / registration forms. We saw this trend emerge right before the market dipped in mid 2008.
2. Developers are starting to LOWER their commission offerings to agents. Lower commissions can only mean one thing: Developers believe it’s too easy to sell condos in Toronto right now.
3. Positive cash-flow is now a complete impossibility at just about every new development or resale condo downtown. Investors with a traditional investment mindset are heading for other markets.
4. One Bloor has about 700 units to sell, and the minimum up front investment is $100K. Demanding so much cash up front from buyers means the banks are restricting the cash flow to developers.
5. Developers have been practically encouraging ‘flippers’ by offering $0 assignments during the first 90 days of buying into a new development.
6. Resale sellers are holding off on offers, not getting an offers, then raising their asking prices in response. Buyers are moving on to other properties.
7. Listings for the GTA are up 48% for the first half of April compared to this time last year.
8. Listings are at an all time high for my company – Re/Max Condos Plus – one of the biggest players in the downtown condo market.
9. Interest rates have risen almost a full 1% over the past few months and (most likely) will continue to rise.
10. Government + the banking industry appear to be consorting to stifle demand for fear of creating a housing bubble.

Questions? Comments? Got your own anecdotes or stats to add to this list? Think I’ve totally lost my mind?  Contact me.